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COVER STORY
THE RACE TO THE WHITE HOUSE
Commentary and analysis by Micah Halpern. November 4, 2008. That’s the day the next president of the greatest Western democracy in the world today will be chosen. For most Americans, Election Day 2008 is a long way off. For party operatives the big day is right around the corner. Strategy sessions have begun, agendas are in draft stages, electioneering routes are being considered and charted out. Party professionals and apparatchiks are busy assessing the limits to which they can take the American agenda, they are weighing the elasticity of the American voter. All that’s left is to fill in the blanks. The only thing missing is the names of the men and women who will slug it out as they vie for the position of 44th President of the United States of America. At this point it is way too early to even predict who the contenders for the presidency will be let alone to predict who the winner will be. But it is certainly not too early to analyze the field and determine the qualities that America is looking for in their president. Let’s put polls aside for the moment. There is no poll now that can accurately determine what will happen seventeen months from now, especially in an election in which there is no incumbent. Polls are tools, they are indicators and even though many voters profess party loyalty it is the individual candidate who ultimately swings most votes. Gone are the days when Iowa and New Hampshire set the national election tone. This time around, even in January –February 2008 when the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary start the election ball rolling, it will be too far away from Election Day to predict a front runner. Predictions were easier when campaigning consisted of stumping on the back of trains and shaking hands in shopping centers in Des Moines and Concord and all across America.
So who should we be looking at for 2008? Where will the next presidential candidates come from? First, look at governors. Resist looking at senators and former senators and look carefully at governors. By the very nature of their position most governors are only locally known. What governors lack in national recognition they more than make up for in experience. Unlike senators who really have no executive experience, governors know how to run a state, they understand how to head a bureaucracy. Senators are legislators, governors are executives and it is no coincidence that the presidency is called the Executive Office. Over the past two decades with the exception of the first President Bush, all American presidents – Carter, Reagan, Clinton, Bush – came out of governor’s mansions, not Georgetown brownstones.
Second, look at candidates that voters love to hate. A dull candidate, a character without controversy, is destined for failure. American voters will look aside and forgive almost anything when a candidate has charisma. That was surely the secret of success for Bill Clinton and that is how George Bush won this last re-election campaign. American voters vote viscerally. John Kerry, Al Gore and John Edwards just do not evince emotional responses. Rudy Giuliani does. Character appeal – positive or negative, is what gets you elected president of the United States of America.
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